Timelines, Tariffs, and Changing Truths (or why there likely won’t be a book next year)
I’ve written and published at least one book a year since 2012. I love books. I probably won’t do one next year. I want to tell you why.
To do that, I have to talk a little about how books are made, how they’re priced, and, oddly enough, tariffs. I never expected to be thinking about tariffs and trade wars when I started writing knitting patterns, but here we are.
Let’s start with timelines.
Books take me about a year to create. I started working on this fall’s book in December 2018. I have my team and my process in place, so I work fast (lots of people take more like two or three years to make a book).
I sourced yarn and wrote patterns in the early winter, got the pieces knit in the late winter and early spring, took photos and did layout and edits in late spring. By June, it was time to talk to the printer and get quotes for different sizes of print runs and for adding in fun stuff like electronic download codes and fancy papers (the things that make physical books so cool).
So, that’s the start of the timeline bit…now we need to start talking about tariffs.
Along with the quotes, the printer let me know that the president was talking about imposing a 25% tariffs on books printed in China. They said we’d know in a few weeks if they’d apply to my book.
I grumbled (if it costs me 25% more to get a book printed, I have to charge you more, and that’s no fun), said to let me know how it turned out, and settled in to finishing up the last of the book. At this point I’d been working on it for more than six months. I’d taken yarn support. I’d paid sample knitters and editors thousands of dollars. I was doing the book either way. As long as I knew what the tariff would be before we went to print, it would be fine. The only question was if I needed to raise the cover price of the book to handle my extra cost.
In early July, the printer came back and said the president had decided not to put tariffs on books. I did a little happy dance, kept the price where I originally wanted it (the price is built into the bar code on the back cover, so you have to set it before you send the files to the printer), and sent the files off. All I had to do now was wait for the book to show up in October.
So, that’s a bit more timeline, and a first brush with a tariff…but hold on, because things are about to get a lot more complicated when the truth changes.
In August, weeks after I’d sent the book to the printer, the president changed his mind. He put a 10% tariff on books. Now remember, I’d already set the price and couldn’t change it because it’s printed on the book. But now the books were going to cost me more to make. A few weeks later, he changed his mind again and raised the tariff to 15%. It may well change again before the book actually gets here.
So to recap, for years and years and years, there were no tariffs on books (because reading is cool and it’s good to keep book prices low). Then the president said he wanted to impose 25% tariffs. That was lousy, but I could have raised the price you pay for the book to cover it. Then he decided not to add a tariff to books, so I kept the price the same and sent the book to the printer. Then, after the book’s price was set, he imposed a 10% tariff. A few weeks later he changed that to a 15% tariff.
So now, the book will cost you the same (only because of bad timing, if I’d known, it would have cost you more), but it will cost me quite a bit more to get it printed.
Now don’t worry about me. I’ll be fine. I publish my books myself, and that means I get somewhere between 40-50% of the book’s cover price when I sell a book to a yarn shop or other outlet (the other 50-60% goes to the place selling it). But it does mean I have a substantial extra expense that I wasn’t expecting. So this book will make less money because the president changed his mind (over and over and over, and with far less notice than is usual).
That’s what’s happening with this book. What’s happening with future books is worse.
These new tariffs (and the incredibly erratic way they were implemented) almost certainly mean I won’t do a paper book next year (and probably not until there’s a new administration). It’s too hard to plan when I don’t know if my costs will change by 10% or 15% or 25% or more with no warning. In the unlikely event I do end up doing a paper book next year, it will cost you more to buy it because I will raise the price to cover these new tariffs and to cover this uncertainty. When I run out of stock of my current paper books, I’m less likely to print more. If I do print more, I’ll raise the cover price on the books so they’ll cost you more. Not because I’m a meany and want to raise prices…but because it’s going to cost me more to get them printed, and I can’t absorb that price all on my own.
I might just do an ebook next year. But ebooks are all the work of a paper book without all the fun of getting to hold something in your hands, so I probably won’t. I’ll probably just do individual patterns.
That means you’ll pay more for patterns (the price per pattern is far, far lower with books than with individual patterns, and individual patterns don’t show up in your local library the way books do). That means yarn shops and dyers don’t have a new book to sell (remember they make more than I do when they sell my books). That means I won’t be hiring as many sample knitters and editors (I tend to knit individual patterns myself, and books go through a more extensive editing process and get extra editors). And that’s just for me, the picture for the industry at large is worse still.
Because I do most everything myself, my profit margins have more wiggle room than those of a traditional publisher. Having my printing costs go up 15% will make this book less profitable, but still doable. From what I’ve heard from folks at traditional publishers, things are a lot tighter there. I can’t say for sure, but I can make some pretty darn educated guesses. These tariffs, and this level of uncertainty probably means book prices will go up. They probably mean designers will make less money working with publishers, so fewer people will be able to afford to write books. They probably mean publishers will be more careful about what they print, so we’ll see fewer new faces writing books. I don’t think any of those are good things.
Still with me? I know this is long and there hasn’t been even a bit of yarn to be seen. But if you are still with me, I want to answer two questions I think folks might ask.
First, what can you do? Well, on a purely selfish level, if you are thinking of buying the book I’m putting out this year, consider buying it directly from me during the preorder. You’ll save a few bucks, you’ll get the book early, and I’ll make more off the preorder books than on books sold through a third party, so it helps make up for the extra unexpected costs this book has to handle. Preordering also means you’re sure to get a copy, because when this one sells out, I almost certainly won’t do a second printing (at least not under this administration).
On a more general level, if you see someone saying that tariffs don’t matter or don’t affect them, remember what’s happened here. If this tariff has followed the usual schedule (so that I knew about it when I set the price for this book), this year’s book would have cost you more. If I print more books under this administration (not likely, but just barely possible), they will cost you more. If these tariffs don’t go away when this administration changes, and I do more books later, they will cost you more. Traditional publishers have to make these choices, too. There will almost certainly be fewer things to buy, and what there is will almost certainly cost you more. And it’s not limited to books. This will apply to a huge number of the things you buy.
Second, someone is absolutely bound to ask why I don’t just get the books printed in the US. The answer is money. I’ve looked into printing books in the US several times, and every time I’ve looked it’s been more than twice as expensive (a whole lot more than twice as expensive if I want to print download codes in the books). If I got the books printed here, the cover price would be more like thirty five to forty dollars (instead of twenty to twenty five). At that price, most knitters wouldn’t buy it, which means I can’t make it.
These tariffs will not make me print books in the US. All they’ll do is either make me not print books at all, or make me raise the cover price on the books I do print.
I know this was a wall of text, and I want to wrap it up with something pithy, but I’m at a bit of a loss.
The shortest possible takeaway is these tariffs will affect you. You won’t always hear about it (it’s a little weird to talk about a thing I won’t be making next year, and I suspect most places won’t talk about those decisions in public), but there will be lots of things that just don’t get made. And the things that do get made will cost you more.
The other thing I’d love you to remember is tariffs are not something that ‘China pays for.’ They’re something that the people making a product pay for and then take into account when they set the prices for those products. I, personally, will literally write a check to pay these tariffs. If I’d known they were coming, I’d have raised the cover price on this year’s book to pass that price on to you. This time the president changed his mind so many times and so quickly that I have to carry that cost myself, but that added cost will absolutely be built into future books. Businesses pay tariffs, and pass the cost on to you. China doesn’t pay a cent.
I’m just one tiny business, but I’m not the only one dealing with this. We’ll all see prices start to rise as a result of these tariffs. Keep it in mind come election day (and oh goodness please vote if you’re able).
P.S. If you’re a fan of this administration or this trade policy, that’s fine. You can totally feel that way, and it’s ok for us to disagree. But, if you’re about to leave a comment where you call me names or threaten to hurt or kill me or my family or my pets, that’s not fine. Seriously not fine. The fact that I have to even mention that it’s not fine is kind of gross, but experience tells me that I do.
This is your heads up that I’m moderating comments. Any that are abusive will be summarily deleted (though I may well find time to mock them…very likely publicly if they’re particularly objectionable). If you wouldn’t say it to my face if you were sitting in my home having a cup of coffee with me, don’t say it on my website.
P.P.S. You’ve all been so amazing! Seriously, I usually brace for a whole bunch of abuse when I say anything even slightly political/polarized. But you’ve all been awesome. Thank you. Totally made me feel better about people!
Thank you for a clear explanation of trade tariffs and their impact on American producers and consumers. I hope manufacturers large and small will follow your example and explain the costs that will be incurred by businesses and consumers. This is what happens when we have an administration that governs by whims, tweets, and soundbites. I’m sorry for all concerned here- you as an independent designer, knitters who enjoy your books, and Americans in general who’ve been hoodwinked.
Thank you for taking the time to lay it out so clearly. It helps make real something that can seem like it won’t affect us.
I love knowing of this example so I can use it when someone says these tariffs are for the Chinese, but darn it if I don’t hate the circumstances. I always appreciate your posts and am glad you have shared this.
1. You should never ever have to ask people not to threaten you for having an opinion. 2. I agree with you about this administration and 3. Absolutely love the little leaf head people! Truly sorry about the books tho. I buy yours from yarn shops because an ebook just isnt the same
I have read elsewhere that rather than absorb the extra costs of the tariffs or pass them along there are many companies in the US that are negotiating with the Chinese to lower their prices. Something to consider since they don’t want to lose their business either.
Goods manufactured in China are less expensive than those produced in other countries because the Chinese do not impose protections for their workers or the environment. I would not want to think about how much worse those conditions would get if prices were forced even lower. Just commenting to think further about Raquel’s comment. I thank Hunter for the clear and calm description of the impact of tariffs on “our” industry.
Tariffs are impacting my business too. I grow and sell organic pecans. China was the biggest consumer of US pecans until the tariffs. China’s president decided that China would no longer buy US agricultural goods due to the tariffs. I sell my pecans in the US only and had a nice little niche market for my farm until all those pecans that used to go to China now are in the US. It essentially flooded my market and for that reason, my sales are off, way off from previous years. So I feel your frustration. The impact is real. As much as this administration likes to crow about how great the economy is doing, if you talk to the real folks, folks who own small businesses, they see trouble on the horizon.
Bravo. A clear and level-headed explanation. I pray you do not get abusive blowback.
Sadly, thank you for laying it out so clearly – I never believed China would pay a penny. Next, how and when can I pre-order from you/ THANK YOU!
I still find it frustrating that so many voters have such a hard time understanding this administration has always been out of control and run by someone who is generally clueless on how his decisions/whims/narcissisms affect the country on a daily basis. Hopefully your well written explanation will help a few more understand. and voice concerns before there is no longer any respect for our country..
I really appreciate you explaining this thoroughly. It helps to have a real example when this comes up in conversation. I do vote and will continue to do so. I have so much hope that things will get better.
Yes, I also want to thank you for such a clear, rational explanation of tariffs. They’re all over the news and sound terrible, but I really didn’t understand their effect on me as a consumer until you explained it. It’s always good to know what goes into being a professional knitter designer person so we know what we are paying for. There’s a ton more work behind the scenes than I realized! In my opinion individual patterns are priced way too low for what it takes to produce them. Compared to yarn, they are a small percentage of the cost of knitting something. I look forward to seeing your new book!
I appreciate the details of what a tariff means to a pattern makers and knitters. Most importantly to us is your continued creative ventures and we have access to them. Nice to know Ravelry has recently upgraded their servers and will be a good source for us to buy your patterns and you to sell them.
Thank you for writing such a clear explanation of how tariffs really do affect American businesses and business owners. Your creativity is a gift, and you make the world a much better place just by being here. xoxox
Thank you for your insightful essay. I don’t blame you a bit for deciding to not print more books and probably not do a book next year. This isn’t a hobby – it needs to make business sense. Sadly our president doesn’t understand economics 101 and that he’s not punishing China – he’s punishing all of us. Undoubtedly it’s been explained to him but backing down would mean admitting he was wrong which he NEVER does. I’m so sorry what this is doing to you.
Thank you for taking the time to explain this. And I’m deeply saddened that your business has been affected like this. I know as you said that you’re in a better position than some to absorb the extra cost, but I’m sure (like all of us) you have a budget and a model that bakes in your plans for future. When a situation is as erratic as the past few years have been under this administration, I can’t help but wonder about the long-term effects…on all of us. We love your patterns, your books, and your principles. I’m reaching out to you shortly to pre-order a bunch of copies for my shop, and I hope your explanation helps at least some people understand how dire the situation is, so we can start to reverse some of the damage in 2020. Thank you again!
This was a fascinating “eye-opening” story. I always thought these tariffs would hurt us, but this puts a whole new perspective on how much effect the tariffs truly have on everyone. I think your story should be publicized and every politician, news reporter and citizen should hear and read about your struggle. Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts. And, I love a book, especially about knitting. I hope this gets solved soon.
When’s the pre-order? I love your books and I want the new one.
Wow! I’ve never understood the implications so clearly. Thank you for putting it in terms that are so understandable/relatable. As a knitter that has many of your books, and even more, your individual patterns, I would be more than happy to preorder. I would really hate to miss even one Hunter Hammersen design, especially the ‘ridiculous’ ones! I have a whole pile of knitted hearts that just plain make me happy. And I can’t wait for the little leaf people to be available. Do what you need to do, and know that we are behind you. Thank you for everything, Hunter.
I wish everyone was as clear headed and logical as you are. Thanks for the explanation. We are in a heck of a hand basket here.
Thank you for the clear explanation about how tariffs will effect you as a small business person. I appreciate that you’ve researched other options and explained the outcome of the research and what it might mean to implement them. I live in rural farming state and have watched local farmers struggle for the past several years, and now tariffs are the last straw….literally. The tariffs are going to have such a far-reaching impact that I don’t think anyone can predict the ripple effect. So very sad. I vote in every election. even though my vote doesn’t feel like it counts in this one-party state, but I will VOTE. And I will watch for the announcement of your pre-order and buy from directly from you.
On a completely different track, how do you publish your books? I’m also putting out a book with color plates, and finding that if I do it via Amazon I only get about 15% of the cover price after they’ve taken their 40% and the price of printing. Your setup sounds way better, and I’m hungry for details!
Thank you for such a clear and readable account of the impact of tariffs not only on your industry which I love but on many more products. Many suffer and uncertainty is bad for business including workers and shoppers. This administration is not business friendly
I’m curious how Trump ended up doing tariffs while all of the economists and business types were telling him it’s a terrible idea. Does he think he’s above the laws of economics? (Clearly he thinks he’s above other laws).
Like other commenters here, I appreciate the clear way you’ve explained this. The publishing world will contract because of these tariffs, and that’s just tip of the iceberg. The full impact of these decisions will eventually be clear- but it will take awhile. By then, Trump will have someone else to blame, and a different crisis designed to avert our attention.
Trump has his “beliefs” and will not listen to expert advice. Anyone who disagrees with him is summarily fired, often over twitter.
One thing that I wondered about President Obama when he took office, considering that he was (relatively) young and had only one term in federal office was how he would know how to get things done. What I failed to take into account is that he was a constitutional law scholar and spent a lot of time in state level government and came in with much more experience and knowledge than people gave him credit for.
His other major characteristic is that he recognized talent and experience and knew how and when to ask for help and advice. He was not averse to asking Bush appointees to stay on when they were doing a good job and he knew the value of compromise. (As opposed to compromised or kompromat).
I’m Canadian and I really don’t understand how reasonable members of the Republican party can stand by and watch this go on and on. If they ever hope to have credibility as a party and save the credibility of the office and your country’s standing internationally, this nonsense has got to stop. Donald Trump is serving his own self interest- whether that’s to protect himself or profit is irrelevant.
It just has to stop. One man’s random whims cannot continue to affect so many people.
Thank you for your clear, well thought out, ac curate description of how tariffs work.
I am disheartened to realize this is going to hurt small businesses harder than I knew.
Is it not a possibility to print in the U.S.? I know nothing of the industry, but seeing yarn production being renewed in the U.S. makes me wonder if the same could not happen for the printed word.
Printing in the US would increase the book’s cover price by about 50% (so think $31.95 instead of $21.95 for a lot of my books). Not enough people would buy it at that price (I already get complaints that the current prices are too hight).
I understand tariffs. They are a penalty for not using “in house” manufacturers. Do you have a reason for not printing in this country? You didn’t mention why. My husband was a printer and his company went out of business when printing left this country. So yes, publishers are getting books printed cheaper, but thousands of men and women were left without jobs. We almost lost everything. Just the other side of the coin.
I do actually mention that directly! I’ll paste what I said here:
Second, someone is absolutely bound to ask why I don’t just get the books printed in the US. The answer is money. I’ve looked into printing books in the US several times, and every time I’ve looked it’s been more than twice as expensive (a whole lot more than twice as expensive if I want to print download codes in the books). If I got the books printed here, the cover price would be more like thirty five to forty dollars (instead of twenty to twenty five). At that price, most knitters wouldn’t buy it, which means I can’t make it.